Logic-probabilistic modeling of hazardous situations in the investigation of aviation events

DOI 10.51955/2312-1327_2022_3_6

Anatoly G. Guziy

Dmitry A. Shiryaev

Abstract. The article presents an original formalizable logical-probabilistic model for the development of hazardous situations in flight, the use of which contributes to the deepening of the analysis of flight safety as a state of the air transport system, covering all its components and interfaces directly or indirectly involved, the current state of which determines the risk of an accident in each specific flight.

It is shown that the effectiveness of measures to reduce the risk of aviation accidents (prevention of aviation events) within the framework of the civil aircraft flight safety management system is largely determined by the level of organization, depth and quality of the investigation of aviation events.

The developed model is essential for organizing the collection of data and recording the results of aviation events investigation, as well as hazard and risk factors that pose a threat to the safety of civil aircraft flights. It allows you to implement a systematic approach to the investigation of aviation accidents, aviation incidents and their prerequisites, providing coverage of all directly or indirectly involved components of the air transport system and interfaces, the current state of which determines the risk of an accident in each particular flight.

The collection and registration of the results of the investigation of aviation events, data on hazard and risk factors for flight safety within the framework of the state system for managing the safety of civil aircraft flights on the basis of the developed model contributes to the fulfillment of the requirements of international and national legislation by all participants in the flight safety management process.

Key words: flight safety, dangerous situations, hazard factors, accident prevention factors, probability of development of a dangerous flight situation, investigation of aviation events.

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