DOI 10.51955/2312-1327_2022_3_215

Zulfiya A. Aksyutina

Abstract. The analysis of scientific publications has shown that forecasting extrapolates trends and patterns of certain phenomena and processes into the future. Socio-pedagogical forecasting has not been properly developed and tested in practice, which is inherent in its inadequate complexity and versatility. An important feature in pedagogical forecasting is optimistic forecasting with the hope of success. Social upbringing remains poorly understood, and its forecasting in scientific research is not carried out. The purpose of the study is to forecast the development of the regional system of social upbringing in the city of Omsk.

The method of expert assessment was used for forecasting. The opinion of 786 experts who work as teachers of higher educational institutions and secondary specialized educational institutions of the city of Omsk was studied. The dynamics of the changes in the social upbringing in Omsk over five years, the dynamics of changes in individual assistance and social experience in the next five years were assessed; the necessary resources to improve social upbringing and the factors influencing the deterioration of the state of social upbringing were identified.

The respondents expressed a number of opinions regarding the ways of development of regional social upbringing. It was noted that it is more dependent on regional specific features. For a more meaningful development of the system of social upbringing, the support of local governments and their involvement in the existing problems in the field of social upbringing is required. The findings of the current study can be used to further model, design and plan the work on social upbringing in the region. The methodology according to which the study was organized may be of interest for conducting similar studies.

Key words: forecasting, expert assessment method, experts, social upbringing, regional system, forecast, futurology.

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